Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Business First of Buffalo:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrightr State and author ofthe report, said unemploymentf increases will continue at theier accelerated pace into the third quartert of this year. The Daytoh Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Miami and Preble counties, is projectede to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third That would drop employmentto 373,900, down from 380,40 0 in the first quarter of the a 2 percent decline.
The hardest-higt area is one the Daytob area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor Forecasts from the report show employment in the sector fallinh from 42,300 in the first quartetr of this year to 36,100 by the thir d quarter, a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in particular, Traynord said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the third quarter, down from 40,000o in the first quarter, a 2 perceny drop.
Service employment, which includes financiaol service, business service, utilities and leisuree service, is projected to decrease to 324,200 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firsf quarter, a nearly 1 percenrt decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasan t time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructioj employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonal employment, to 13,400 from 11,400o in the first quarter, but that is 1,000p jobs fewer than the same time period last One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthn care.
In fact, Traynoe said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirrd quarter, going up to 56,50o0 from 56,300 in the first He said the rate of decline in gross domestivc product will slow, but remain negativer through the third quarter and maybe into the fourthh quarter of this year. Even when GDP does become positivre again, it will take some time for employmenr to pick up because it is a lagging indicator ofeconomif recovery. Traynor said there is a greart deal of uncertainty stilp on thenational level, as businesses try to determinew the impact of government Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not goinfg away anytime soon.
“This is something we’re goingh to be living with for quita while, well into next year,” he